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Hibernian vs Malisheva — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Hibernian
Hibernian
Preview
19:00
Malisheva
Malisheva
7/30/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundEaster Road
80%
Hibernian
model favours
80%12%8%

Hibernian score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

3–0
likely score
80%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hibernian80%
×Draw12%
Malisheva8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hibernian
3.33
Malisheva
1.00

Hibernian creates 233% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hibernian
2.33
Malisheva
0.33

allows per match

Hibernian
1.67
Malisheva
4.33

finishing

Hibernian+0.00on par
Malisheva+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian ↓

Malisheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Hibernian or draw
92%
Hibernian or Malisheva
88%
Draw or Malisheva
20%

Winning margin

Hibernian wins by 2+
62%
Malisheva wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hibernian 1+ goals
96%
Hibernian 2+ goals
84%
Hibernian 3+ goals
63%
Malisheva 1+ goals
63%
Malisheva 2+ goals
26%
Malisheva 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hibernian (draw refunded)
91%
Malisheva (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Malisheva away — creates 0.33, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian attack 2.33 + Malisheva defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.33

Malisheva attack 0.33 + Hibernian defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Hibernian scores more
80%
level
12%
Malisheva scores more
8%

Hibernian at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Hibernian
LWWLL
Malisheva
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hibernian host Malisheva

July 30, 2026: Hibernian take on Malisheva in UEFA Europa Conference League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hibernian host Malisheva at Easter Road.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.