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Malisheva vs Hibernian — UEFA Europa Conference League 2026

Malisheva
Malisheva
Preview
14:30
Hibernian
Hibernian
7/23/2026UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round
65%
Malisheva
model favours
65%21%15%

Hibernian score first in only 31% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Malisheva65%
×Draw21%
Hibernian15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malisheva
2.00
Hibernian
0.83

Malisheva creates 141% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Malisheva
2.00
Hibernian
1.33

allows per match

Malisheva
0.33
Hibernian
2.00

finishing

Malisheva+0.00on par
Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malisheva ↓

Hibernian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Malisheva or draw
85%
Malisheva or Hibernian
79%
Draw or Hibernian
35%

Winning margin

Malisheva wins by 2+
40%
Hibernian wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Malisheva 1+ goals
86%
Malisheva 2+ goals
59%
Malisheva 3+ goals
32%
Hibernian 1+ goals
56%
Hibernian 2+ goals
20%
Hibernian 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Malisheva (draw refunded)
81%
Hibernian (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malisheva at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malisheva attack 2.00 + Hibernian defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hibernian attack 1.33 + Malisheva defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Malisheva scores more
65%
level
21%
Hibernian scores more
15%

Malisheva at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Malisheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Malisheva and Hibernian have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Malisheva
WLWLW
Hibernian
WWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Malisheva vs Hibernian — Match Preview

Malisheva face Hibernian on July 23, 2026 in this UEFA Europa Conference League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.