Hibernian 2–1 Heart Of Midlothian: Result & Stats

Hibernian

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Heart Of Midlothian

J. Iredale 74'

M. Boyle 6'

J. Grant 9'

3/2/2025

Premiership · 1st Phase - 29Easter Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Hibernian39%

×Draw27%

Heart Of Midlothian34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HibernianExpected goals in this matchHeart Of Midlothian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.19

Hibernian

1.30

Heart Of Midlothian

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.73

creates per match

1.57

0.81

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Hibernian

1.73

Heart Of Midlothian

1.57

allows per match

Hibernian

0.81

Heart Of Midlothian

0.87

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

-0.24scores less than expected

finishing

Hibernian-0.18scores less

Heart Of Midlothian-0.24scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hibernian or draw

66%

Hibernian or Heart Of Midlothian

73%

Draw or Heart Of Midlothian

61%

Winning margin

Hibernian wins by 2+

18%

Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hibernian 1+ goals

73%

Hibernian 2+ goals

37%

Hibernian 3+ goals

14%

Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals

70%

Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals

33%

Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hibernian (draw refunded)

54%

Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.81 · 11 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.87 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian attack 1.73 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.30

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.57 + Hibernian defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hibernian scores more

39%

level

27%

Heart Of Midlothian scores more

34%

Hibernian at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Iredale

Hibernian · D

8.5

Match Events

6'

9'

45+2'

45'

58'

69'

D. Levitt← N. Moriah-Welsh

69'

D. Gayle← K. Bowie

69'

C. Nieuwenhof← J. Grant

69'

S. Kartum← J. Wilson

74'

J. Iredale

82'

M. Drammeh← B. Baningime

82'

K. Vargas← B. Spittal

85'

J. Obita← N. Cadden

85'

J. Hoilett← M. Boyle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HibernianHeart

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots10

4Corners6

8Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target2

3Off Target7

5Blocked1

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

338Total Passes395

246Accurate Passes297

73%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3