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Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian — Premiership 2018

Hibernian
Hibernian
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
12/27/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 20Easter Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Hibernian40%
×Draw27%
Heart Of Midlothian33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hibernian
1.35
Heart Of Midlothian
1.21

Hibernian creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hibernian
1.73
Heart Of Midlothian
1.60

allows per match

Hibernian
0.81
Heart Of Midlothian
0.98

finishing

Hibernian-0.18scores less
Heart Of Midlothian-0.20scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hibernian or draw
67%
Hibernian or Heart Of Midlothian
73%
Draw or Heart Of Midlothian
60%

Winning margin

Hibernian wins by 2+
18%
Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hibernian 1+ goals
74%
Hibernian 2+ goals
39%
Hibernian 3+ goals
15%
Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals
70%
Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals
34%
Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hibernian (draw refunded)
54%
Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.81 · 11 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian attack 1.73 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.35

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.60 + Hibernian defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hibernian scores more
40%
level
27%
Heart Of Midlothian scores more
33%

Hibernian at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian

Heart Of Midlothian beat Hibernian 1-0 in Premiership on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at Easter Road Stadium in Edinburgh.