Hibernian 0–0 Cove Rangers: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Hibernian

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cove Rangers

1/20/2022

FA Cup · 4th RoundEaster Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hibernian51%

×Draw21%

Cove Rangers28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HibernianExpected goals in this matchCove Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.47

Hibernian

2.05

Cove Rangers

1.47

Hibernian creates 39% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.40

creates per match

1.14

1.80

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hibernian

2.40

Cove Rangers

1.14

allows per match

Hibernian

1.80

Cove Rangers

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hibernian+0.00on par

Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian ↓

Cove Rangers →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Hibernian or draw

72%

Hibernian or Cove Rangers

79%

Draw or Cove Rangers

49%

Winning margin

Hibernian wins by 2+

30%

Cove Rangers wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hibernian 1+ goals

87%

Hibernian 2+ goals

61%

Hibernian 3+ goals

33%

Cove Rangers 1+ goals

77%

Cove Rangers 2+ goals

43%

Cove Rangers 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hibernian (draw refunded)

65%

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hibernian at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian attack 2.40 + Cove Rangers defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Cove Rangers attack 1.14 + Hibernian defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hibernian scores more

51%

level

21%

Cove Rangers scores more

28%

Hibernian at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff