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Hibernian vs Brora Rangers — League Cup 2018

Hibernian
Hibernian
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
10/7/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Easter Road Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hibernian81%
×Draw12%
Brora Rangers7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hibernian
2.87
Brora Rangers
0.70

Hibernian creates 310% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hibernian
2.73
Brora Rangers
0.33

allows per match

Hibernian
1.07
Brora Rangers
3.00

finishing

Hibernian+0.00on par
Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hibernian ↓

Brora Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hibernian or draw
93%
Hibernian or Brora Rangers
88%
Draw or Brora Rangers
19%

Winning margin

Hibernian wins by 2+
61%
Brora Rangers wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hibernian 1+ goals
94%
Hibernian 2+ goals
77%
Hibernian 3+ goals
53%
Brora Rangers 1+ goals
50%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
16%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Hibernian (draw refunded)
93%
Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hibernian at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hibernian attack 2.73 + Brora Rangers defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.87

Brora Rangers attack 0.33 + Hibernian defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Hibernian scores more
81%
level
12%
Brora Rangers scores more
7%

Hibernian at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hibernian vs Brora Rangers

Hibernian beat Brora Rangers 3-1 in League Cup on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Easter Road Stadium in Edinburgh.