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HHC vs SVV Scheveningen — Tweede Divisie 2019

HHC
HHC
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
11/18/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 13Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

HHC50%
×Draw24%
SVV Scheveningen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HHC
1.71
SVV Scheveningen
1.15

HHC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 83 away

creates per match

HHC
1.90
SVV Scheveningen
1.12

allows per match

HHC
1.18
SVV Scheveningen
1.52

finishing

HHC+0.00on par
SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HHC ↓

SVV Scheveningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

HHC or draw
74%
HHC or SVV Scheveningen
76%
Draw or SVV Scheveningen
50%

Winning margin

HHC wins by 2+
27%
SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

HHC 1+ goals
82%
HHC 2+ goals
51%
HHC 3+ goals
24%
SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
68%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
32%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

HHC (draw refunded)
66%
SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HHC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

SVV Scheveningen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HHC attack 1.90 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.71

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.12 + HHC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HHC scores more
50%
level
24%
SVV Scheveningen scores more
26%

HHC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: HHC 3–4 SVV Scheveningen

SVV Scheveningen beat HHC 4-3 in Tweede Divisie on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark de Boshoek in Hardenberg.