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HHC vs Sparta Rotterdam II — Tweede Divisie 2019

HHC
HHC
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Sparta Rotterdam II
Sparta Rotterdam II
1/25/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 20Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

HHC48%
×Draw22%
Sparta Rotterdam II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HHC
1.90
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.46

HHC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 102 away

creates per match

HHC
1.90
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.75

allows per match

HHC
1.18
Sparta Rotterdam II
1.89

finishing

HHC+0.00on par
Sparta Rotterdam II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HHC ↓

Sparta Rotterdam II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

HHC or draw
70%
HHC or Sparta Rotterdam II
78%
Draw or Sparta Rotterdam II
52%

Winning margin

HHC wins by 2+
27%
Sparta Rotterdam II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

HHC 1+ goals
85%
HHC 2+ goals
56%
HHC 3+ goals
29%
Sparta Rotterdam II 1+ goals
77%
Sparta Rotterdam II 2+ goals
43%
Sparta Rotterdam II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

HHC (draw refunded)
62%
Sparta Rotterdam II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HHC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

Sparta Rotterdam II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.89 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HHC attack 1.90 + Sparta Rotterdam II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.90

Sparta Rotterdam II attack 1.75 + HHC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HHC scores more
48%
level
22%
Sparta Rotterdam II scores more
30%

HHC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: HHC 5–1 Sparta Rotterdam II

HHC beat Sparta Rotterdam II 5-1 in Tweede Divisie on January 25, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark de Boshoek in Hardenberg.