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HHC vs Spakenburg — Tweede Divisie 2019

HHC
HHC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spakenburg
Spakenburg
3/16/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 25Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

HHC47%
×Draw23%
Spakenburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HHC
1.86
Spakenburg
1.48

HHC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 101 away

creates per match

HHC
1.90
Spakenburg
1.79

allows per match

HHC
1.18
Spakenburg
1.82

finishing

HHC+0.00on par
Spakenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HHC ↓

Spakenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

HHC or draw
69%
HHC or Spakenburg
77%
Draw or Spakenburg
53%

Winning margin

HHC wins by 2+
26%
Spakenburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

HHC 1+ goals
84%
HHC 2+ goals
55%
HHC 3+ goals
28%
Spakenburg 1+ goals
77%
Spakenburg 2+ goals
43%
Spakenburg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

HHC (draw refunded)
60%
Spakenburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HHC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

Spakenburg away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.82 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HHC attack 1.90 + Spakenburg defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.86

Spakenburg attack 1.79 + HHC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

HHC scores more
47%
level
23%
Spakenburg scores more
31%

HHC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HHC vs Spakenburg

HHC beat Spakenburg 2-0 in Tweede Divisie on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark de Boshoek in Hardenberg.