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HHC vs Kozakken Boys — Tweede Divisie 2019

HHC
HHC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys
9/30/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 7Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

HHC52%
×Draw23%
Kozakken Boys25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HHC
1.79
Kozakken Boys
1.17

HHC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 85 away

creates per match

HHC
1.93
Kozakken Boys
1.16

allows per match

HHC
1.19
Kozakken Boys
1.65

finishing

HHC+0.00on par
Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HHC ↓

Kozakken Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

HHC or draw
75%
HHC or Kozakken Boys
77%
Draw or Kozakken Boys
48%

Winning margin

HHC wins by 2+
29%
Kozakken Boys wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

HHC 1+ goals
83%
HHC 2+ goals
53%
HHC 3+ goals
26%
Kozakken Boys 1+ goals
69%
Kozakken Boys 2+ goals
33%
Kozakken Boys 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

HHC (draw refunded)
68%
Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HHC at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.19 · 98 matches

Kozakken Boys away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.65 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HHC attack 1.93 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kozakken Boys attack 1.16 + HHC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HHC scores more
52%
level
23%
Kozakken Boys scores more
25%

HHC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HHC vs Kozakken Boys

HHC and Kozakken Boys drew 0-0 in Tweede Divisie on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark de Boshoek in Hardenberg.