HHC 1–2 Koninklijke HFC: Result & Stats

HHC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Koninklijke HFC

12/14/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 17Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

HHC48%

×Draw24%

Koninklijke HFC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HHCExpected goals in this matchKoninklijke HFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.26

HHC

1.73

Koninklijke HFC

1.26

HHC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 99 away

1.90

creates per match

1.34

1.18

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

HHC

1.90

Koninklijke HFC

1.34

allows per match

HHC

1.18

Koninklijke HFC

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HHC+0.00on par

Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HHC ↓

Koninklijke HFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

HHC or draw

72%

HHC or Koninklijke HFC

76%

Draw or Koninklijke HFC

52%

Winning margin

HHC wins by 2+

26%

Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

HHC 1+ goals

82%

HHC 2+ goals

52%

HHC 3+ goals

25%

Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals

72%

Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals

36%

Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

HHC (draw refunded)

63%

Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HHC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HHC attack 1.90 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + HHC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HHC scores more

48%

level

24%

Koninklijke HFC scores more

28%

HHC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff