HHC 1–0 Excelsior Maassluis: Result & Stats

HHC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Excelsior Maassluis

3/9/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 18Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

HHC56%

×Draw22%

Excelsior Maassluis22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HHCExpected goals in this matchExcelsior Maassluis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.17

HHC

1.99

Excelsior Maassluis

1.17

HHC creates 70% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 104 away

1.90

creates per match

1.16

1.18

allows per match

2.09

creates per match

HHC

1.90

Excelsior Maassluis

1.16

allows per match

HHC

1.18

Excelsior Maassluis

2.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HHC+0.00on par

Excelsior Maassluis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HHC ↓

Excelsior Maassluis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

HHC or draw

78%

HHC or Excelsior Maassluis

78%

Draw or Excelsior Maassluis

44%

Winning margin

HHC wins by 2+

33%

Excelsior Maassluis wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

HHC 1+ goals

86%

HHC 2+ goals

59%

HHC 3+ goals

32%

Excelsior Maassluis 1+ goals

69%

Excelsior Maassluis 2+ goals

33%

Excelsior Maassluis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

HHC (draw refunded)

72%

Excelsior Maassluis (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HHC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

Excelsior Maassluis away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.09 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HHC attack 1.90 + Excelsior Maassluis defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.99

Excelsior Maassluis attack 1.16 + HHC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

HHC scores more

56%

level

22%

Excelsior Maassluis scores more

22%

HHC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff