HHC 3–1 Barendrecht: Result & Stats

HHC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Barendrecht

T. de Lange 90+4'

L. Spit 90'

R. van der Leij 65' (pen)

B. de Bruin 74' (pen)

1/11/2025

Tweede Divisie · Round 18Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

HHC60%

×Draw20%

Barendrecht20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HHCExpected goals in this matchBarendrecht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.17

HHC

2.19

Barendrecht

1.17

HHC creates 87% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 48 away

1.94

creates per match

1.15

1.19

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

HHC

1.94

Barendrecht

1.15

allows per match

HHC

1.19

Barendrecht

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HHC+0.00on par

Barendrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HHC ↓

Barendrecht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

HHC or draw

80%

HHC or Barendrecht

80%

Draw or Barendrecht

40%

Winning margin

HHC wins by 2+

38%

Barendrecht wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

HHC 1+ goals

89%

HHC 2+ goals

64%

HHC 3+ goals

37%

Barendrecht 1+ goals

69%

Barendrecht 2+ goals

33%

Barendrecht 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

HHC (draw refunded)

75%

Barendrecht (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HHC at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.19 · 99 matches

Barendrecht away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.44 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HHC attack 1.94 + Barendrecht defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.19

Barendrecht attack 1.15 + HHC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

HHC scores more

60%

level

20%

Barendrecht scores more

20%

HHC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

R. van der Leij← J. Kemna

61'

G. Klok← S. Strijker

61'

L. Spit← T. Reinders

64'

J. Jongman

65'

R. van der LeijPenalty

67'

B. Vugts← O. Mrowicki

74'

B. de BruinPenalty

77'

L. Dielhof← K. Rook

81'

A. Manuhutu← T. Sopacua

81'

J. Brzeżowski← N. ten Brinke

90+2'

J. Gomes

90'

L. Spit↳ T. de Lange

90+4'

T. de Lange↳ J. Brzeżowski

HHC

Barendrecht

20

4

3

2

15

▼

Rook

8

Jongman

18

⚽

12

6

9

21

▼

1

20

3

2

▼

Sopacua

7

Doorm

17

▼

Strijker

22

▼

Brinke

8

Weghuis

19

▼

Kemna

23

▼

Reinders

15

⚽A

Lange

Manager: P. Diender

60'▲R. van der Leij←▼J. Kemna

61'▲G. Klok←▼S. Strijker

61'▲L. Spit←▼T. Reinders

81'▲A. Manuhutu←▼T. Sopacua

81'▲J. Brzeżowski←▼N. ten Brinke

HHC substitutes

9Leij21Klok10Spit5Manuhutu18Brzeżowski24Vaags6Donald

Manager: L. van Steensel

67'▲B. Vugts←▼O. Mrowicki

77'▲L. Dielhof←▼K. Rook

Barendrecht substitutes

17Vugts16Dielhof1Meer27Strick23Fonseca14Kassels