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HHC vs ADO '20 — Tweede Divisie 2019

HHC
HHC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ADO '20
ADO '20
11/4/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 11Sportpark de Boshoek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

HHC60%
×Draw21%
ADO '2018%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HHC
2.00
ADO '20
1.00

HHC creates 100% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 36 away

creates per match

HHC
1.90
ADO '20
0.83

allows per match

HHC
1.18
ADO '20
2.11

finishing

HHC+0.00on par
ADO '20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HHC ↓

ADO '20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

HHC or draw
82%
HHC or ADO '20
79%
Draw or ADO '20
40%

Winning margin

HHC wins by 2+
36%
ADO '20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

HHC 1+ goals
86%
HHC 2+ goals
59%
HHC 3+ goals
32%
ADO '20 1+ goals
63%
ADO '20 2+ goals
26%
ADO '20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HHC (draw refunded)
77%
ADO '20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HHC at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

ADO '20 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.11 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HHC attack 1.90 + ADO '20 defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.00

ADO '20 attack 0.83 + HHC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

HHC scores more
60%
level
21%
ADO '20 scores more
18%

HHC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "HHC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: HHC 1–0 ADO '20

HHC beat ADO '20 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark de Boshoek in Hardenberg.