HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec

HFX Wanderers FC

Preview

22:00

Supra du Quebec

7/24/2026

Canadian Premier League · Group StageWanderers Grounds

46%

HFX Wanderers FC

model favours

46%23%31%

HFX Wanderers FC score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

65%

over 2.5 goals

65%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

HFX Wanderers FC46%

×Draw23%

Supra du Quebec31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HFX Wanderers FCExpected goals in this matchSupra du Quebec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.49

HFX Wanderers FC

1.85

Supra du Quebec

1.49

HFX Wanderers FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 4 away

1.46

creates per match

1.75

1.23

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

HFX Wanderers FC

1.46

Supra du Quebec

1.75

allows per match

HFX Wanderers FC

1.23

Supra du Quebec

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HFX Wanderers FC+0.00on par

Supra du Quebec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HFX Wanderers FC ↓

Supra du Quebec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

HFX Wanderers FC or draw

69%

HFX Wanderers FC or Supra du Quebec

77%

Draw or Supra du Quebec

54%

Winning margin

HFX Wanderers FC wins by 2+

25%

Supra du Quebec wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

HFX Wanderers FC 1+ goals

84%

HFX Wanderers FC 2+ goals

55%

HFX Wanderers FC 3+ goals

28%

Supra du Quebec 1+ goals

77%

Supra du Quebec 2+ goals

44%

Supra du Quebec 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

HFX Wanderers FC (draw refunded)

60%

Supra du Quebec (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HFX Wanderers FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

Supra du Quebec away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.46 + Supra du Quebec defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.85

Supra du Quebec attack 1.75 + HFX Wanderers FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

HFX Wanderers FC scores more

46%

level

23%

Supra du Quebec scores more

31%

HFX Wanderers FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "HFX Wanderers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

FC

WLWLL

Quebec

LWLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff