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HFX Wanderers FC vs FC Edmonton — Canadian Premier League 2020

HFX Wanderers FC
HFX Wanderers FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Edmonton
FC Edmonton
9/25/2021Canadian Premier LeagueCanadian Premier League · Round 9Wanderers Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

HFX Wanderers FC52%
×Draw24%
FC Edmonton24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HFX Wanderers FC
1.69
FC Edmonton
1.07

HFX Wanderers FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 32 away

creates per match

HFX Wanderers FC
1.46
FC Edmonton
0.91

allows per match

HFX Wanderers FC
1.23
FC Edmonton
1.91

finishing

HFX Wanderers FC+0.00on par
FC Edmonton+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HFX Wanderers FC ↓

FC Edmonton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

HFX Wanderers FC or draw
76%
HFX Wanderers FC or FC Edmonton
76%
Draw or FC Edmonton
48%

Winning margin

HFX Wanderers FC wins by 2+
28%
FC Edmonton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

HFX Wanderers FC 1+ goals
82%
HFX Wanderers FC 2+ goals
50%
HFX Wanderers FC 3+ goals
24%
FC Edmonton 1+ goals
66%
FC Edmonton 2+ goals
29%
FC Edmonton 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

HFX Wanderers FC (draw refunded)
68%
FC Edmonton (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HFX Wanderers FC at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 83 matches

FC Edmonton away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.46 + FC Edmonton defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC Edmonton attack 0.91 + HFX Wanderers FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

HFX Wanderers FC scores more
52%
level
24%
FC Edmonton scores more
24%

HFX Wanderers FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "HFX Wanderers FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Canadian Premier League: HFX Wanderers FC 1–0 FC Edmonton

HFX Wanderers FC beat FC Edmonton 1-0 in Canadian Premier League on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Wanderers Grounds in Halifax, Nova Scotia.