HFX Wanderers FC 1–3 CF Montreal: Result & Stats

HFX Wanderers FC

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

CF Montreal

9/22/2021

Canadian Championship · Quarter-finalsWanderers Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

HFX Wanderers FC34%

×Draw24%

CF Montreal42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HFX Wanderers FCExpected goals in this matchCF Montreal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.60

HFX Wanderers FC

1.40

CF Montreal

1.60

CF Montreal creates 14% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.29

creates per match

1.20

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

HFX Wanderers FC

1.29

CF Montreal

1.20

allows per match

HFX Wanderers FC

2.00

CF Montreal

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HFX Wanderers FC+0.00on par

CF Montreal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HFX Wanderers FC ↓

CF Montreal →

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

HFX Wanderers FC or draw

58%

HFX Wanderers FC or CF Montreal

76%

Draw or CF Montreal

66%

Winning margin

HFX Wanderers FC wins by 2+

15%

CF Montreal wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

HFX Wanderers FC 1+ goals

75%

HFX Wanderers FC 2+ goals

41%

HFX Wanderers FC 3+ goals

17%

CF Montreal 1+ goals

80%

CF Montreal 2+ goals

47%

CF Montreal 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

HFX Wanderers FC (draw refunded)

44%

CF Montreal (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

HFX Wanderers FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.29 + CF Montreal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

CF Montreal attack 1.20 + HFX Wanderers FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

HFX Wanderers FC scores more

34%

level

24%

CF Montreal scores more

42%

CF Montreal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "CF Montreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff