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HFX Wanderers FC vs AS Blainville — Canadian Championship 2018

HFX Wanderers FC
HFX Wanderers FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AS Blainville
AS Blainville
8/17/2021Canadian ChampionshipCanadian Championship · Preliminary RoundWanderers Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

HFX Wanderers FC30%
×Draw28%
AS Blainville42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HFX Wanderers FC
1.04
AS Blainville
1.30

AS Blainville creates 25% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

HFX Wanderers FC
1.29
AS Blainville
0.60

allows per match

HFX Wanderers FC
2.00
AS Blainville
0.80

finishing

HFX Wanderers FC+0.00on par
AS Blainville+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HFX Wanderers FC ↓

AS Blainville →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

HFX Wanderers FC or draw
58%
HFX Wanderers FC or AS Blainville
72%
Draw or AS Blainville
70%

Winning margin

HFX Wanderers FC wins by 2+
11%
AS Blainville wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

HFX Wanderers FC 1+ goals
65%
HFX Wanderers FC 2+ goals
28%
HFX Wanderers FC 3+ goals
9%
AS Blainville 1+ goals
73%
AS Blainville 2+ goals
37%
AS Blainville 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

HFX Wanderers FC (draw refunded)
41%
AS Blainville (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HFX Wanderers FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

AS Blainville away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HFX Wanderers FC attack 1.29 + AS Blainville defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

AS Blainville attack 0.60 + HFX Wanderers FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

HFX Wanderers FC scores more
30%
level
28%
AS Blainville scores more
42%

AS Blainville at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AS Blainville will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HFX Wanderers FC vs AS Blainville

HFX Wanderers FC beat AS Blainville 2-1 in Canadian Championship on August 17, 2021.

The match was played at Wanderers Grounds in Halifax, Nova Scotia.