HFK Olomouc vs Valašské Meziříčí

HFK Olomouc

CANC

15:30

Valašské Meziříčí

6/27/2021

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 26Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

HFK Olomouc39%

×Draw24%

Valašské Meziříčí37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HFK OlomoucExpected goals in this matchValašské Meziříčí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.52

HFK Olomouc

1.55

Valašské Meziříčí

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 33 away

1.31

creates per match

1.52

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

HFK Olomouc

1.31

Valašské Meziříčí

1.52

allows per match

HFK Olomouc

1.52

Valašské Meziříčí

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Valašské Meziříčí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HFK Olomouc ↓

Valašské Meziříčí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

HFK Olomouc or draw

63%

HFK Olomouc or Valašské Meziříčí

76%

Draw or Valašské Meziříčí

61%

Winning margin

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

19%

Valašské Meziříčí wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

79%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

46%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

20%

Valašské Meziříčí 1+ goals

78%

Valašské Meziříčí 2+ goals

45%

Valašské Meziříčí 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

51%

Valašské Meziříčí (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HFK Olomouc at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

Valašské Meziříčí away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HFK Olomouc attack 1.31 + Valašské Meziříčí defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Valašské Meziříčí attack 1.52 + HFK Olomouc defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

HFK Olomouc scores more

39%

level

24%

Valašské Meziříčí scores more

37%

HFK Olomouc at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HFK Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff