HFK Olomouc 0–4 Bzenec: Result & Stats

HFK Olomouc

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Bzenec

10/22/2023

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 12Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

HFK Olomouc42%

×Draw23%

Bzenec35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HFK OlomoucExpected goals in this matchBzenec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.58

HFK Olomouc

1.73

Bzenec

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 80 away

1.31

creates per match

1.64

1.52

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

HFK Olomouc

1.31

Bzenec

1.64

allows per match

HFK Olomouc

1.52

Bzenec

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Bzenec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HFK Olomouc ↓

Bzenec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

HFK Olomouc or draw

65%

HFK Olomouc or Bzenec

77%

Draw or Bzenec

58%

Winning margin

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

22%

Bzenec wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

82%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

52%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

25%

Bzenec 1+ goals

79%

Bzenec 2+ goals

47%

Bzenec 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

54%

Bzenec (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HFK Olomouc at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

Bzenec away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.14 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HFK Olomouc attack 1.31 + Bzenec defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bzenec attack 1.64 + HFK Olomouc defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

HFK Olomouc scores more

42%

level

23%

Bzenec scores more

35%

HFK Olomouc at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "HFK Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff