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HFK Olomouc vs Brumov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

HFK Olomouc
HFK Olomouc
CANC
13:30
Brumov
Brumov
4/11/20214. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 15Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

HFK Olomouc48%
×Draw24%
Brumov28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HFK Olomouc
1.71
Brumov
1.26

HFK Olomouc creates 36% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 27 away

creates per match

HFK Olomouc
1.31
Brumov
1.00

allows per match

HFK Olomouc
1.52
Brumov
2.11

finishing

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par
Brumov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HFK Olomouc ↓

Brumov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

HFK Olomouc or draw
72%
HFK Olomouc or Brumov
76%
Draw or Brumov
52%

Winning margin

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+
26%
Brumov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals
82%
HFK Olomouc 2+ goals
51%
HFK Olomouc 3+ goals
24%
Brumov 1+ goals
72%
Brumov 2+ goals
36%
Brumov 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)
63%
Brumov (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HFK Olomouc at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

Brumov away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HFK Olomouc attack 1.31 + Brumov defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

Brumov attack 1.00 + HFK Olomouc defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HFK Olomouc scores more
48%
level
24%
Brumov scores more
28%

HFK Olomouc at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HFK Olomouc will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HFK Olomouc vs Brumov — Match Preview

HFK Olomouc face Brumov on April 11, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie E fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

HFK Olomouc host Brumov at Stadion 1. HFK Olomouc.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.