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Hévíz vs Nagykanizsai ULE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Hévíz
Hévíz
CANC
00:00
Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
6/30/2020NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 21Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hévíz29%
×Draw23%
Nagykanizsai ULE49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hévíz
1.39
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.87

Nagykanizsai ULE creates 35% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 109 away

creates per match

Hévíz
1.40
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.94

allows per match

Hévíz
1.80
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.37

finishing

Hévíz+0.00on par
Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hévíz ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hévíz or draw
51%
Hévíz or Nagykanizsai ULE
77%
Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE
71%

Winning margin

Hévíz wins by 2+
13%
Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hévíz 1+ goals
75%
Hévíz 2+ goals
40%
Hévíz 3+ goals
16%
Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
85%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
56%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hévíz (draw refunded)
37%
Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hévíz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.37 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hévíz attack 1.40 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.39

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.94 + Hévíz defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hévíz scores more
29%
level
23%
Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
49%

Nagykanizsai ULE at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nagykanizsai ULE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hévíz vs Nagykanizsai ULE — Match Preview

Hévíz face Nagykanizsai ULE on June 30, 2020 in this NB III - Southwest fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hévíz host Nagykanizsai ULE at Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.