Hévíz 0–1 Lipot SK: Result & Stats

Hévíz

FT

0 – 1

Lipot SK

10/20/2019

NB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 11Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hévíz30%

×Draw24%

Lipot SK47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HévízExpected goals in this matchLipot SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.71

Hévíz

1.32

Lipot SK

1.71

Lipot SK creates 30% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 28 away

1.40

creates per match

1.61

1.80

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Hévíz

1.40

Lipot SK

1.61

allows per match

Hévíz

1.80

Lipot SK

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hévíz+0.00on par

Lipot SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hévíz ↓

Lipot SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hévíz or draw

53%

Hévíz or Lipot SK

76%

Draw or Lipot SK

70%

Winning margin

Hévíz wins by 2+

13%

Lipot SK wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hévíz 1+ goals

73%

Hévíz 2+ goals

38%

Hévíz 3+ goals

15%

Lipot SK 1+ goals

82%

Lipot SK 2+ goals

51%

Lipot SK 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hévíz (draw refunded)

39%

Lipot SK (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hévíz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Lipot SK away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hévíz attack 1.40 + Lipot SK defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Lipot SK attack 1.61 + Hévíz defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hévíz scores more

30%

level

24%

Lipot SK scores more

47%

Lipot SK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lipot SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff