Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hévíz vs Komárom — NB III - Southwest 2019

Hévíz
Hévíz
FT
2 – 2
Komárom
Komárom
11/3/2019NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 13Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hévíz38%
×Draw24%
Komárom38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hévíz
1.55
Komárom
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 65 away

creates per match

Hévíz
1.40
Komárom
1.28

allows per match

Hévíz
1.80
Komárom
1.71

finishing

Hévíz+0.00on par
Komárom+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hévíz ↓

Komárom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hévíz or draw
62%
Hévíz or Komárom
76%
Draw or Komárom
62%

Winning margin

Hévíz wins by 2+
19%
Komárom wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hévíz 1+ goals
79%
Hévíz 2+ goals
46%
Hévíz 3+ goals
20%
Komárom 1+ goals
79%
Komárom 2+ goals
45%
Komárom 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hévíz (draw refunded)
50%
Komárom (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hévíz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Komárom away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.71 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hévíz attack 1.40 + Komárom defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Komárom attack 1.28 + Hévíz defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hévíz scores more
38%
level
24%
Komárom scores more
38%

Hévíz at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hévíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hévíz vs Komárom

Hévíz and Komárom drew 2-2 in NB III - Southwest on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya in Hévíz.