Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hévíz vs Balatonlelle SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Hévíz
Hévíz
CANC
00:00
Balatonlelle SE
Balatonlelle SE
5/10/2020NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 27Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hévíz51%
×Draw23%
Balatonlelle SE26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hévíz
1.85
Balatonlelle SE
1.27

Hévíz creates 46% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hévíz
1.40
Balatonlelle SE
0.74

allows per match

Hévíz
1.80
Balatonlelle SE
2.30

finishing

Hévíz+0.00on par
Balatonlelle SE+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hévíz ↓

Balatonlelle SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hévíz or draw
74%
Hévíz or Balatonlelle SE
77%
Draw or Balatonlelle SE
49%

Winning margin

Hévíz wins by 2+
28%
Balatonlelle SE wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hévíz 1+ goals
84%
Hévíz 2+ goals
55%
Hévíz 3+ goals
28%
Balatonlelle SE 1+ goals
72%
Balatonlelle SE 2+ goals
36%
Balatonlelle SE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hévíz (draw refunded)
66%
Balatonlelle SE (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hévíz at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

Balatonlelle SE away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hévíz attack 1.40 + Balatonlelle SE defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.85

Balatonlelle SE attack 0.74 + Hévíz defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hévíz scores more
51%
level
23%
Balatonlelle SE scores more
26%

Hévíz at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hévíz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hévíz face Balatonlelle SE (NB III - Southwest)

NB III - Southwest returns with Hévíz hosting Balatonlelle SE. Match starts May 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hévíz host Balatonlelle SE at Kossuth Lajos utcai Pálya.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.