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Hetten FC vs Al Shoalah — Division 1 2018

Hetten FC
Hetten FC
FT
2 – 2
Al Shoalah
Al Shoalah
10/29/2019Division 1Division 1 · Round 11King Faisal Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hetten FC36%
×Draw26%
Al Shoalah39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hetten FC
1.33
Al Shoalah
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 76 away

creates per match

Hetten FC
1.58
Al Shoalah
0.88

allows per match

Hetten FC
1.89
Al Shoalah
1.08

finishing

Hetten FC+0.00on par
Al Shoalah+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hetten FC ↓

Al Shoalah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hetten FC or draw
61%
Hetten FC or Al Shoalah
74%
Draw or Al Shoalah
64%

Winning margin

Hetten FC wins by 2+
16%
Al Shoalah wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hetten FC 1+ goals
74%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
38%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
15%
Al Shoalah 1+ goals
75%
Al Shoalah 2+ goals
40%
Al Shoalah 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hetten FC (draw refunded)
48%
Al Shoalah (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hetten FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Al Shoalah away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.08 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hetten FC attack 1.58 + Al Shoalah defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al Shoalah attack 0.88 + Hetten FC defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hetten FC scores more
36%
level
26%
Al Shoalah scores more
39%

Al Shoalah at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Shoalah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Hetten FC 2–2 Al Shoalah

Hetten FC and Al Shoalah drew 2-2 in Division 1 on October 29, 2019.

The match was played at King Faisal Sport City Stadium in Jizan.