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Hetten FC vs Al-Ain — Division 1 2018

Hetten FC
Hetten FC
FT
2 – 2
Al-Ain
Al-Ain
1/28/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 22King Faisal Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hetten FC38%
×Draw25%
Al-Ain37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hetten FC
1.45
Al-Ain
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Hetten FC
1.58
Al-Ain
0.92

allows per match

Hetten FC
1.89
Al-Ain
1.31

finishing

Hetten FC+0.00on par
Al-Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hetten FC ↓

Al-Ain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hetten FC or draw
63%
Hetten FC or Al-Ain
75%
Draw or Al-Ain
62%

Winning margin

Hetten FC wins by 2+
18%
Al-Ain wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hetten FC 1+ goals
77%
Hetten FC 2+ goals
42%
Hetten FC 3+ goals
18%
Al-Ain 1+ goals
76%
Al-Ain 2+ goals
41%
Al-Ain 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hetten FC (draw refunded)
51%
Al-Ain (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hetten FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Al-Ain away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hetten FC attack 1.58 + Al-Ain defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.45

Al-Ain attack 0.92 + Hetten FC defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hetten FC scores more
38%
level
25%
Al-Ain scores more
37%

Hetten FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hetten FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hetten FC vs Al-Ain

Hetten FC and Al-Ain drew 2-2 in Division 1 on January 28, 2020.

The match was played at King Faisal Sport City Stadium in Jizan.