Hessen Kassel U19 0–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Hessen Kassel U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

L. Biemel 90'

9/11/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hessen Kassel U1918%

×Draw17%

Stuttgarter K'rs U1965%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen Kassel U19Expected goals in this matchStuttgarter K'rs U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.74

Hessen Kassel U19

1.41

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.74

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 59 away

0.20

creates per match

1.27

4.20

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Hessen Kassel U19

0.20

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

1.27

allows per match

Hessen Kassel U19

4.20

Stuttgarter K'rs U19

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Stuttgarter K'rs U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Kassel U19 ↓

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hessen Kassel U19 or draw

35%

Hessen Kassel U19 or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

83%

Draw or Stuttgarter K'rs U19

82%

Winning margin

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

7%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

76%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

41%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

17%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 1+ goals

93%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 2+ goals

75%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Kassel U19 at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 10 matches

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.61 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.20 + Stuttgarter K'rs U19 defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.41

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 attack 1.27 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

18%

level

17%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 scores more

65%

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Stuttgarter K'rs U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

J. Gremler← H. Eckhardt

55'

T. Tahiri← S. Petrovic

61'

E. Zogjani← R. Terpsiadis

61'

Y. Mallet← E. Krieger

63'

M. Felmeden← M. Agyekum

76'

M. Hudalla← A. Babic

88'

L. Biemel← E. Zogjani

90'

L. Biemel

Hessen

Stuttgarter

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Noja

41'▲J. Gremler←▼H. Eckhardt

55'▲T. Tahiri←▼S. Petrovic

63'▲M. Felmeden←▼M. Agyekum

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

GremlerTahiriFelmedenBaltaGiglioPoradaKalbfleisch

Manager: M. Ünal

61'▲E. Zogjani←▼R. Terpsiadis

61'▲Y. Mallet←▼E. Krieger

76'▲M. Hudalla←▼A. Babic

88'▲L. Biemel←▼E. Zogjani

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 substitutes

ZogjaniMalletHudallaBiemelEtemiRothSeemann

U19 Bundesliga: Hessen Kassel U19 0–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19

Stuttgarter K'rs U19 beat Hessen Kassel U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 11, 2021.

Goals: L. Biemel (90').

The match was played at G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße in Kassel.

Hessen Kassel U19 vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hessen Kassel U19 0–1 Stuttgarter K'rs U19