Hessen Kassel U19 0–2 Saarbrücken U19

Hessen Kassel U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Saarbrücken U19

E. Metaj 62'

S. Maas 37'

11/28/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 11G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hessen Kassel U1922%

×Draw18%

Saarbrücken U1960%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen Kassel U19Expected goals in this matchSaarbrücken U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.70

Hessen Kassel U19

1.59

Saarbrücken U19

2.70

Saarbrücken U19 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 37 away

0.20

creates per match

1.19

4.20

allows per match

2.97

creates per match

Hessen Kassel U19

0.20

Saarbrücken U19

1.19

allows per match

Hessen Kassel U19

4.20

Saarbrücken U19

2.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Kassel U19 ↓

Saarbrücken U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Hessen Kassel U19 or draw

40%

Hessen Kassel U19 or Saarbrücken U19

82%

Draw or Saarbrücken U19

78%

Winning margin

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

10%

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

80%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

47%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

21%

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

93%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

75%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Kassel U19 at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 10 matches

Saarbrücken U19 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.20 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.97 → ÷2 → 1.59

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.19 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

22%

level

18%

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

60%

Saarbrücken U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Saarbrücken U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

S. Maas

59'

T. Weber← M. Simsek

62'

E. Metaj

67'

J. Gremler← F. di Giglio

67'

J. Magar← H. Dorst

75'

T. Trittel← S. Yigitoglu

76'

F. Geißler← A. Lazzano

88'

L. Garcia← T. Tahiri

89'

D. Cullmann← S. Maas

Hessen

Saarbrücken

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Noja

67'▲J. Gremler←▼F. di Giglio

75'▲T. Trittel←▼S. Yigitoglu

88'▲L. Garcia←▼T. Tahiri

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

GremlerTrittelGarciaSeidelmannUrbonPoradaKalbfleisch

Manager: E. Melunovic

59'▲T. Weber←▼M. Simsek

67'▲J. Magar←▼H. Dorst

76'▲F. Geißler←▼A. Lazzano

89'▲D. Cullmann←▼S. Maas

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

WeberMagarGeißlerCullmannGauWeisFlausse

Match Recap: Hessen Kassel U19 vs Saarbrücken U19

Saarbrücken U19 beat Hessen Kassel U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 28, 2021.

Goals: S. Maas (37'), E. Metaj (62').

The match was played at G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße in Kassel.

Hessen Kassel U19 vs Saarbrücken U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hessen Kassel U19 vs Saarbrücken U19