Hessen Kassel U19 0–3 Nürnberg U19: Result & Stats

Hessen Kassel U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Nürnberg U19

P. Muteba 74'

D. Koc 45+2', 31'

3/13/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hessen Kassel U199%

×Draw13%

Nürnberg U1979%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen Kassel U19Expected goals in this matchNürnberg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

3.08

Hessen Kassel U19

0.95

Nürnberg U19

3.08

Nürnberg U19 creates 224% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 63 away

0.20

creates per match

1.95

4.20

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hessen Kassel U19

0.20

Nürnberg U19

1.95

allows per match

Hessen Kassel U19

4.20

Nürnberg U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Kassel U19 ↓

Nürnberg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–29%

0–39%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hessen Kassel U19 or draw

21%

Hessen Kassel U19 or Nürnberg U19

87%

Draw or Nürnberg U19

91%

Winning margin

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

3%

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+

59%

Team goals

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

61%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

25%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

7%

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals

95%

Nürnberg U19 2+ goals

81%

Nürnberg U19 3+ goals

58%

Draw no bet

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

10%

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Kassel U19 at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 10 matches

Nürnberg U19 away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.71 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.20 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 0.95

Nürnberg U19 attack 1.95 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

9%

level

13%

Nürnberg U19 scores more

79%

Nürnberg U19 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Nürnberg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

D. Koc

32'

F. Bindbeutel← T. Leinhos

45+2'

D. Koc

59'

E. Herger← T. Afework

59'

N. Zietsch← M. Gundelach

73'

S. Yigitoglu← F. di Giglio

74'

P. Muteba

77'

S. Petrovic← T. Trittel

Hessen

Nürnberg

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Noja

32'▲F. Bindbeutel←▼T. Leinhos

73'▲S. Yigitoglu←▼F. di Giglio

77'▲S. Petrovic←▼T. Trittel

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

BindbeutelYigitogluPetrovicUrbonKalbfleischSchmacke

Manager: A. Wolf

59'▲E. Herger←▼T. Afework

59'▲N. Zietsch←▼M. Gundelach

Nürnberg U19 substitutes

HergerZietschGahlert