Hessen Kassel U19 0–5 Freiburg U19: Result & Stats

Hessen Kassel U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Freiburg U19

A. Moutassime 86'

D. Au Yeong 79'

J. Ribeiro 74'

T. Mühlethaler 40'

M. Baur 24'

10/17/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 7G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hessen Kassel U199%

×Draw13%

Freiburg U1978%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen Kassel U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

2.96

Hessen Kassel U19

0.90

Freiburg U19

2.96

Freiburg U19 creates 229% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 61 away

0.20

creates per match

1.72

4.20

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Hessen Kassel U19

0.20

Freiburg U19

1.72

allows per match

Hessen Kassel U19

4.20

Freiburg U19

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Kassel U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–210%

0–39%

0–47%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Hessen Kassel U19 or draw

22%

Hessen Kassel U19 or Freiburg U19

87%

Draw or Freiburg U19

91%

Winning margin

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

3%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

59%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

23%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

6%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

95%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

79%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

10%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Kassel U19 at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 10 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.59 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.20 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 0.90

Freiburg U19 attack 1.72 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

9%

level

13%

Freiburg U19 scores more

78%

Freiburg U19 at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

M. Baur

40'

T. Mühlethaler

56'

F. Bindbeutel← M. Felmeden

56'

J. Gremler← S. Petrovic

61'

J. Ribeiro← T. Mühlethaler

68'

F. Allgaier← G. Bunga Capitao

71'

T. Tahiri← L. Garcia

73'

T. Mertz← M. Baur

74'

J. Ribeiro

79'

D. Au Yeong

82'

T. Birk← M. Wörner

83'

M. Porada← M. Agyekum

86'

A. Moutassime

Hessen

Freiburg

▼

⚽

▼

Mühlethal

Pellegrin

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Noja

56'▲F. Bindbeutel←▼M. Felmeden

56'▲J. Gremler←▼S. Petrovic

71'▲T. Tahiri←▼L. Garcia

83'▲M. Porada←▼M. Agyekum

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

BindbeutelGremlerTahiriPoradaArslanSeidelmannGiglio

Manager: F. Valente

61'▲J. Ribeiro←▼T. Mühlethaler

68'▲F. Allgaier←▼G. Bunga Capitao

73'▲T. Mertz←▼M. Baur

82'▲T. Birk←▼M. Wörner

Freiburg U19 substitutes

RibeiroAllgaierMertzBirkEchnerBrüningPfauser