Hessen Kassel U19 1–5 Eintracht Frankf U19

Hessen Kassel U19

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Eintracht Frankf U19

M. Agyekum 49'

A. Fóti 56', 55' (pen), 39'

H. Ghotra 53'

D. Gebuhr 37'

2/5/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 13G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hessen Kassel U198%

×Draw12%

Eintracht Frankf U1980%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen Kassel U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Frankf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

3.25

Hessen Kassel U19

0.98

Eintracht Frankf U19

3.25

Eintracht Frankf U19 creates 232% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 73 away

0.20

creates per match

2.29

4.20

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Hessen Kassel U19

0.20

Eintracht Frankf U19

2.29

allows per match

Hessen Kassel U19

4.20

Eintracht Frankf U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Frankf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Kassel U19 ↓

Eintracht Frankf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–28%

0–39%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hessen Kassel U19 or draw

20%

Hessen Kassel U19 or Eintracht Frankf U19

88%

Draw or Eintracht Frankf U19

92%

Winning margin

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

3%

Eintracht Frankf U19 wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

62%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

26%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

8%

Eintracht Frankf U19 1+ goals

96%

Eintracht Frankf U19 2+ goals

83%

Eintracht Frankf U19 3+ goals

61%

Draw no bet

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

9%

Eintracht Frankf U19 (draw refunded)

91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Kassel U19 at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 10 matches

Eintracht Frankf U19 away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.77 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.20 + Eintracht Frankf U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 0.98

Eintracht Frankf U19 attack 2.29 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

8%

level

12%

Eintracht Frankf U19 scores more

80%

Eintracht Frankf U19 at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Eintracht Frankf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

39'

49'

53'

55'

A. FótiPenalty

56'

A. Fóti

66'

J. Nathaniel← M. Damar

66'

M. Loune← Nacho Ferri

72'

M. Felmeden← M. Agyekum

72'

M. Afsar← D. Maqkaj

77'

F. di Giglio← F. Bindbeutel

77'

B. Tepedibi← H. Ghotra

82'

F. Urbon← H. Eckhardt

87'

T. Trittel← M. Porada

Hessen

Eintracht

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Noja

72'▲M. Felmeden←▼M. Agyekum

77'▲F. di Giglio←▼F. Bindbeutel

82'▲F. Urbon←▼H. Eckhardt

87'▲T. Trittel←▼M. Porada

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

FelmedenGiglioUrbonTrittelFarcasKalbfleischPetrovic

Manager: A. Ibertsberger

66'▲J. Nathaniel←▼M. Damar

66'▲M. Loune←▼Nacho Ferri

72'▲M. Afsar←▼D. Maqkaj

77'▲B. Tepedibi←▼H. Ghotra

Eintracht Frankf U19 substitutes

NathanielLouneAfsarTepedibiTemurKleinerGauer