Hessen Kassel U19 0–7 Bayern München U19

Hessen Kassel U19

FT

0 – 7

HT: 0 – 1

Bayern München U19

M. Wenig 87', 51'

B. Neziri 81' (pen)

L. Copado 71', 20'

A. Ibrahimović 59'

P. Kalbfleisch 48' (OG)

10/30/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 9G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hessen Kassel U197%

×Draw11%

Bayern München U1983%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen Kassel U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

3.42

Hessen Kassel U19

0.93

Bayern München U19

3.42

Bayern München U19 creates 268% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 72 away

0.20

creates per match

2.63

4.20

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Hessen Kassel U19

0.20

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

Hessen Kassel U19

4.20

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Kassel U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–15%

0–28%

0–39%

0–48%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hessen Kassel U19 or draw

17%

Hessen Kassel U19 or Bayern München U19

89%

Draw or Bayern München U19

93%

Winning margin

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

2%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

65%

Team goals

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

61%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

24%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

7%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

97%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

85%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

8%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Kassel U19 at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 10 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.20 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.93

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

7%

level

11%

Bayern München U19 scores more

83%

Bayern München U19 at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

L. Copado

46'

Y. Aitamer← M. Sanyang

46'

A. Ibrahimović← G. Mamedova

48'

P. KalbfleischOwn goal

51'

M. Wenig

59'

A. Ibrahimović

63'

F. Bindbeutel← S. Yigitoglu

63'

J. Gremler← T. Tahiri

63'

S. Petrovic← M. Agyekum

66'

G. Marušić← D. Herold

71'

L. Copado

75'

B. Neziri← L. Denk

81'

B. NeziriPenalty

82'

M. Porada← T. Leinhos

87'

M. Wenig

Hessen

Bayern

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽2

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Noja

63'▲F. Bindbeutel←▼S. Yigitoglu

63'▲J. Gremler←▼T. Tahiri

63'▲S. Petrovic←▼M. Agyekum

82'▲M. Porada←▼T. Leinhos

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

BindbeutelGremlerPetrovicPoradaEckhardtFerlFelmeden

Manager: D. Galm

46'▲Y. Aitamer←▼M. Sanyang

46'▲A. Ibrahimović←▼G. Mamedova

66'▲G. Marušić←▼D. Herold

75'▲B. Neziri←▼L. Denk

Bayern München U19 substitutes

AitamerIbrahimovićMarušićNeziriDibraniWannerSchmitt

U19 Bundesliga: Hessen Kassel U19 0–7 Bayern München U19

Bayern München U19 beat Hessen Kassel U19 7-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 30, 2021.

Goals: L. Copado (20', 71'), P. Kalbfleisch (48' o.g.), M. Wenig (51', 87'), A. Ibrahimović (59'), B. Neziri (81' pen).

The match was played at G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße in Kassel.

Hessen Kassel U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hessen Kassel U19 0–7 Bayern München U19