Hessen Kassel U19 0–6 Astoria Walldorf U19

Hessen Kassel U19

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Astoria Walldorf U19

J. Boziaris 83', 57', 15', 12' (pen)

L. Safranek 78'

E. Zeybek 25'

4/23/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 20G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hessen Kassel U1915%

×Draw16%

Astoria Walldorf U1969%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen Kassel U19Expected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

2.73

Hessen Kassel U19

1.19

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.73

Astoria Walldorf U19 creates 129% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

0.20

creates per match

1.26

4.20

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Hessen Kassel U19

0.20

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.26

allows per match

Hessen Kassel U19

4.20

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Kassel U19+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Kassel U19 ↓

Astoria Walldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Hessen Kassel U19 or draw

31%

Hessen Kassel U19 or Astoria Walldorf U19

84%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf U19

85%

Winning margin

Hessen Kassel U19 wins by 2+

5%

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Hessen Kassel U19 1+ goals

70%

Hessen Kassel U19 2+ goals

33%

Hessen Kassel U19 3+ goals

12%

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

93%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

75%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Hessen Kassel U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Kassel U19 at home — creates 0.20, concedes 4.20 · 10 matches

Astoria Walldorf U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Kassel U19 attack 0.20 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.26 + Hessen Kassel U19 defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hessen Kassel U19 scores more

15%

level

16%

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

69%

Astoria Walldorf U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Astoria Walldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

J. BoziarisPenalty

15'

J. Boziaris

25'

E. Zeybek

33'

M. Felmeden← D. Farcas

54'

N. Wannemacher← M. Hauswirth

57'

J. Boziaris

58'

J. Schmincke← F. di Giglio

58'

M. Suntrup← S. Petrovic

63'

M. Collins← E. Zeybek

71'

V. Kim← N. Melder

78'

L. Safranek

79'

N. Mehr← S. Belvari

81'

T. Trittel← M. Agyekum

83'

J. Boziaris

Hessen

Astoria

Lutz

⚽

▼

▼

⚽4

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Noja

33'▲M. Felmeden←▼D. Farcas

58'▲J. Schmincke←▼F. di Giglio

58'▲M. Suntrup←▼S. Petrovic

81'▲T. Trittel←▼M. Agyekum

Hessen Kassel U19 substitutes

FelmedenSchminckeSuntrupTrittelArslan

Manager: Roberto Pinto

54'▲N. Wannemacher←▼M. Hauswirth

63'▲M. Collins←▼E. Zeybek

71'▲V. Kim←▼N. Melder

79'▲N. Mehr←▼S. Belvari

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

WannemacherCollinsKimMehrMehrGerold

Match Recap: Hessen Kassel U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19

Astoria Walldorf U19 beat Hessen Kassel U19 6-0 in U19 Bundesliga on April 23, 2022.

Goals: J. Boziaris (12' pen, 15', 57', 83'), E. Zeybek (25'), L. Safranek (78').

The match was played at G-Platz an der Damaschkestraße in Kassel.

Hessen Kassel U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hessen Kassel U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19