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Hessen Dreieich vs Viktoria Griesheim — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
FT
3 – 1
Viktoria Griesheim
Viktoria Griesheim
10/8/2021Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 12Hahn Air Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hessen Dreieich65%
×Draw18%
Viktoria Griesheim17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hessen Dreieich
2.59
Viktoria Griesheim
1.26

Hessen Dreieich creates 106% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 58 away

creates per match

Hessen Dreieich
2.81
Viktoria Griesheim
1.19

allows per match

Hessen Dreieich
1.33
Viktoria Griesheim
2.38

finishing

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par
Viktoria Griesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Dreieich ↓

Viktoria Griesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Hessen Dreieich or draw
83%
Hessen Dreieich or Viktoria Griesheim
82%
Draw or Viktoria Griesheim
35%

Winning margin

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
44%
Viktoria Griesheim wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
92%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
73%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
47%
Viktoria Griesheim 1+ goals
72%
Viktoria Griesheim 2+ goals
36%
Viktoria Griesheim 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
79%
Viktoria Griesheim (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Dreieich at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Viktoria Griesheim away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.81 + Viktoria Griesheim defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.59

Viktoria Griesheim attack 1.19 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hessen Dreieich scores more
65%
level
18%
Viktoria Griesheim scores more
17%

Hessen Dreieich at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Hessen Dreieich 3–1 Viktoria Griesheim

Hessen Dreieich beat Viktoria Griesheim 3-1 in Oberliga - Hessen on October 8, 2021.

The match was played at Hahn Air Sportpark in Dreieich.