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Hessen Dreieich vs Schott Mainz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
FT
1 – 1
Schott Mainz
Schott Mainz
8/23/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hahn Air Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hessen Dreieich80%
×Draw13%
Schott Mainz7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hessen Dreieich
2.80
Schott Mainz
0.72

Hessen Dreieich creates 289% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hessen Dreieich
2.60
Schott Mainz
1.25

allows per match

Hessen Dreieich
0.20
Schott Mainz
3.00

finishing

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par
Schott Mainz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Dreieich ↓

Schott Mainz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hessen Dreieich or draw
93%
Hessen Dreieich or Schott Mainz
87%
Draw or Schott Mainz
20%

Winning margin

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
59%
Schott Mainz wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
94%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
76%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
52%
Schott Mainz 1+ goals
51%
Schott Mainz 2+ goals
16%
Schott Mainz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
92%
Schott Mainz (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Dreieich at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Schott Mainz away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.60 + Schott Mainz defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.80

Schott Mainz attack 1.25 + Hessen Dreieich defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Hessen Dreieich scores more
80%
level
13%
Schott Mainz scores more
7%

Hessen Dreieich at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hessen Dreieich vs Schott Mainz

Hessen Dreieich and Schott Mainz drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Hahn Air Sportpark in Dreieich.