Hessen Dreieich 1–0 Kickers Offenbach

Hessen Dreieich

1 – 0

Kickers Offenbach

8/19/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hahn Air Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hessen Dreieich43%

×Draw26%

Kickers Offenbach31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen DreieichExpected goals in this matchKickers Offenbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.17

Hessen Dreieich

1.45

Kickers Offenbach

1.17

Hessen Dreieich creates 24% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

2.60

creates per match

2.14

0.20

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

Hessen Dreieich

2.60

Kickers Offenbach

2.14

allows per match

Hessen Dreieich

0.20

Kickers Offenbach

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Kickers Offenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Dreieich ↓

Kickers Offenbach →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hessen Dreieich or draw

69%

Hessen Dreieich or Kickers Offenbach

74%

Draw or Kickers Offenbach

57%

Winning margin

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+

21%

Kickers Offenbach wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals

77%

Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals

42%

Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals

18%

Kickers Offenbach 1+ goals

69%

Kickers Offenbach 2+ goals

33%

Kickers Offenbach 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)

59%

Kickers Offenbach (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hessen Dreieich at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Kickers Offenbach away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.60 + Kickers Offenbach defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kickers Offenbach attack 2.14 + Hessen Dreieich defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hessen Dreieich scores more

43%

level

26%

Kickers Offenbach scores more

31%

Hessen Dreieich at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff