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Hessen Dreieich vs FC 1906 Erlensee — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Hessen Dreieich
Hessen Dreieich
FT
2 – 0
FC 1906 Erlensee
FC 1906 Erlensee
10/24/2020Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 12Hahn Air Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hessen Dreieich62%
×Draw19%
FC 1906 Erlensee19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hessen Dreieich
2.40
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.25

Hessen Dreieich creates 92% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 57 away

creates per match

Hessen Dreieich
2.81
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.16

allows per match

Hessen Dreieich
1.33
FC 1906 Erlensee
1.98

finishing

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par
FC 1906 Erlensee+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Dreieich ↓

FC 1906 Erlensee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hessen Dreieich or draw
81%
Hessen Dreieich or FC 1906 Erlensee
81%
Draw or FC 1906 Erlensee
38%

Winning margin

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+
41%
FC 1906 Erlensee wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals
91%
Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals
69%
Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals
42%
FC 1906 Erlensee 1+ goals
71%
FC 1906 Erlensee 2+ goals
36%
FC 1906 Erlensee 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)
77%
FC 1906 Erlensee (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Dreieich at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

FC 1906 Erlensee away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.98 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.81 + FC 1906 Erlensee defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.40

FC 1906 Erlensee attack 1.16 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hessen Dreieich scores more
62%
level
19%
FC 1906 Erlensee scores more
19%

Hessen Dreieich at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hessen Dreieich vs FC 1906 Erlensee

Hessen Dreieich beat FC 1906 Erlensee 2-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Hahn Air Sportpark in Dreieich.