Hessen Dreieich 3–3 Eddersheim: Result & Stats

Hessen Dreieich

FT

3 – 3

Eddersheim

9/26/2020

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 6Hahn Air Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hessen Dreieich54%

×Draw20%

Eddersheim26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hessen DreieichExpected goals in this matchEddersheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.56

Hessen Dreieich

2.28

Eddersheim

1.56

Hessen Dreieich creates 46% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 91 away

2.81

creates per match

1.78

1.33

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Hessen Dreieich

2.81

Eddersheim

1.78

allows per match

Hessen Dreieich

1.33

Eddersheim

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hessen Dreieich+0.00on par

Eddersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hessen Dreieich ↓

Eddersheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Hessen Dreieich or draw

74%

Hessen Dreieich or Eddersheim

80%

Draw or Eddersheim

46%

Winning margin

Hessen Dreieich wins by 2+

33%

Eddersheim wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Hessen Dreieich 1+ goals

90%

Hessen Dreieich 2+ goals

66%

Hessen Dreieich 3+ goals

39%

Eddersheim 1+ goals

79%

Eddersheim 2+ goals

46%

Eddersheim 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hessen Dreieich (draw refunded)

67%

Eddersheim (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hessen Dreieich at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Eddersheim away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.75 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hessen Dreieich attack 2.81 + Eddersheim defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.28

Eddersheim attack 1.78 + Hessen Dreieich defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hessen Dreieich scores more

54%

level

20%

Eddersheim scores more

26%

Hessen Dreieich at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hessen Dreieich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff