Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hertha Zehlendorf vs Victoria Seelow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
FT
7 – 1
Victoria Seelow
Victoria Seelow
8/30/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 3Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf75%
×Draw14%
Victoria Seelow10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.81
Victoria Seelow
0.94

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 199% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.85
Victoria Seelow
0.89

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
0.98
Victoria Seelow
2.78

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par
Victoria Seelow+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf ↓

Victoria Seelow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf or draw
90%
Hertha Zehlendorf or Victoria Seelow
86%
Draw or Victoria Seelow
25%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
55%
Victoria Seelow wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
94%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
76%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
52%
Victoria Seelow 1+ goals
61%
Victoria Seelow 2+ goals
24%
Victoria Seelow 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
88%
Victoria Seelow (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Victoria Seelow away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.85 + Victoria Seelow defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.81

Victoria Seelow attack 0.89 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
75%
level
14%
Victoria Seelow scores more
10%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Zehlendorf vs Victoria Seelow

Hertha Zehlendorf beat Victoria Seelow 7-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.