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Hertha Zehlendorf vs Torgelower SV Greif — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
CANC
13:00
Torgelower SV Greif
Torgelower SV Greif
11/22/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 12Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf50%
×Draw22%
Torgelower SV Greif28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Zehlendorf
1.98
Torgelower SV Greif
1.44

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 38% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.85
Torgelower SV Greif
1.89

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
0.98
Torgelower SV Greif
1.11

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par
Torgelower SV Greif+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf ↓

Torgelower SV Greif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf or draw
72%
Hertha Zehlendorf or Torgelower SV Greif
78%
Draw or Torgelower SV Greif
50%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
29%
Torgelower SV Greif wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
86%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
59%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
31%
Torgelower SV Greif 1+ goals
76%
Torgelower SV Greif 2+ goals
42%
Torgelower SV Greif 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
64%
Torgelower SV Greif (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Torgelower SV Greif away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.85 + Torgelower SV Greif defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.98

Torgelower SV Greif attack 1.89 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
50%
level
22%
Torgelower SV Greif scores more
28%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hertha Zehlendorf face Torgelower SV Greif (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with Hertha Zehlendorf hosting Torgelower SV Greif. Match starts November 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hertha Zehlendorf host Torgelower SV Greif at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.