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Hertha Zehlendorf vs Sparta Lichtenberg — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
11/5/2023Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 12Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf61%
×Draw18%
Sparta Lichtenberg20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.56
Sparta Lichtenberg
1.44

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 78% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 44 away

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.85
Sparta Lichtenberg
1.89

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
0.98
Sparta Lichtenberg
2.27

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par
Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf ↓

Sparta Lichtenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf or draw
80%
Hertha Zehlendorf or Sparta Lichtenberg
82%
Draw or Sparta Lichtenberg
39%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
40%
Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
92%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
72%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
46%
Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
76%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
42%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
75%
Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Sparta Lichtenberg away — creates 1.89, concedes 2.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.85 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.56

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 1.89 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
61%
level
18%
Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
20%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Hertha Zehlendorf 2–2 Sparta Lichtenberg

Hertha Zehlendorf and Sparta Lichtenberg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.