Hertha Zehlendorf vs Rostocker FC

Hertha Zehlendorf

CANC

12:00

Rostocker FC

5/29/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 35Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf74%

×Draw14%

Rostocker FC12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha ZehlendorfExpected goals in this matchRostocker FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.05

1.19

Hertha Zehlendorf

3.05

Rostocker FC

1.19

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 156% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 67 away

2.85

creates per match

1.40

0.98

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf

2.85

Rostocker FC

1.40

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf

0.98

Rostocker FC

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par

Rostocker FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf ↓

Rostocker FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–15%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf or draw

88%

Hertha Zehlendorf or Rostocker FC

86%

Draw or Rostocker FC

26%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+

54%

Rostocker FC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals

95%

Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals

80%

Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals

57%

Rostocker FC 1+ goals

70%

Rostocker FC 2+ goals

33%

Rostocker FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)

86%

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Rostocker FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.85 + Rostocker FC defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.05

Rostocker FC attack 1.40 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more

74%

level

14%

Rostocker FC scores more

12%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff