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Hertha Zehlendorf vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
FT
2 – 0
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
9/12/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 6Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf68%
×Draw19%
Ludwigsfelde14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.23
Ludwigsfelde
0.89

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 151% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.85
Ludwigsfelde
0.80

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
0.98
Ludwigsfelde
1.60

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf or draw
86%
Hertha Zehlendorf or Ludwigsfelde
81%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
32%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
44%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
89%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
65%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
38%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
59%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
22%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
83%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.85 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.23

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.80 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
68%
level
19%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
14%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Zehlendorf vs Ludwigsfelde

Hertha Zehlendorf beat Ludwigsfelde 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.