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Hertha Zehlendorf vs BFC Preussen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
BFC Preussen
BFC Preussen
M. Weber 21'
C. Gawe 50'
N. Frank 25'
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld Kunstrasenplatz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf34%
×Draw23%
BFC Preussen44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Zehlendorf
1.58
BFC Preussen
1.83

BFC Preussen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
1.60
BFC Preussen
1.67

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.00
BFC Preussen
1.56

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par
BFC Preussen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf ↓

BFC Preussen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf or draw
56%
Hertha Zehlendorf or BFC Preussen
77%
Draw or BFC Preussen
66%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
16%
BFC Preussen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
79%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
47%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
21%
BFC Preussen 1+ goals
84%
BFC Preussen 2+ goals
54%
BFC Preussen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
43%
BFC Preussen (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

BFC Preussen away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 1.60 + BFC Preussen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

BFC Preussen attack 1.67 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
34%
level
23%
BFC Preussen scores more
44%

BFC Preussen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "BFC Preussen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
M. Weber
25'
N. Frank
50'
C. Gawe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hertha Zehlendorf vs BFC Preussen

BFC Preussen beat Hertha Zehlendorf 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Weber (21'), N. Frank (25'), C. Gawe (50').

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld Kunstrasenplatz 1 in Berlin.