Hertha Zehlendorf U19 0–3 Wolfsburg U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Wolfsburg U19

K. Amoako 85'

Joâo Pinto 71', 63'

9/3/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 4Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U1928%

×Draw20%

Wolfsburg U1952%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19Expected goals in this matchWolfsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.38

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.73

Wolfsburg U19

2.38

Wolfsburg U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 78 away

2.27

creates per match

2.40

2.36

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.27

Wolfsburg U19

2.40

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.36

Wolfsburg U19

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or draw

48%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or Wolfsburg U19

80%

Draw or Wolfsburg U19

72%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

14%

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

82%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

52%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

25%

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

91%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

68%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.19 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.27 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.73

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.40 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

28%

level

20%

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

52%

Wolfsburg U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

A. Soliman← A. Millgramm

59'

Joâo Pinto← D. Pejčinović

63'

J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah← J. Windsor

63'

Joâo Pinto

68'

L. Homann← M. Till Meier

68'

M. Herrmann← M. Braun

68'

M. Jasiński← A. Doci

71'

Joâo Pinto

73'

L. Millgramm← H. Muqaj

82'

J. Hartl← T. Fron

82'

P. Behrend← G. Didoss

85'

K. Amoako

86'

J. Costa← K. Amoako

Hertha

Wolfsburg

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Siebert

46'▲A. Soliman←▼A. Millgramm

63'▲J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah←▼J. Windsor

73'▲L. Millgramm←▼H. Muqaj

82'▲J. Hartl←▼T. Fron

82'▲P. Behrend←▼G. Didoss

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

SolimanNnaemeka-ChukwurahMillgrammHartlBehrendKarikaZdep

Manager: D. Bauer

59'▲Joâo Pinto←▼D. Pejčinović

68'▲L. Homann←▼M. Till Meier

68'▲M. Herrmann←▼M. Braun

68'▲M. Jasiński←▼A. Doci

86'▲J. Costa←▼K. Amoako

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

PintoHomannHerrmannJasińskiCostaKirchmayrBrkić

Match Recap: Hertha Zehlendorf U19 vs Wolfsburg U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 3, 2022.

Goals: Joâo Pinto (63', 71'), K. Amoako (85').

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hertha Zehlendorf U19 vs Wolfsburg U19