Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2–5 Werder Bremen U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Werder Bremen U19

B. Mashollaj 76' (OG)

J. Hartl 22'

L. Mina 68'

J. Imasuen 60'

T. Winkelmann 42'

R. Schwarz 38'

D. Kasper 7'

3/11/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 17Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U1936%

×Draw20%

Werder Bremen U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19Expected goals in this matchWerder Bremen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.29

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.09

Werder Bremen U19

2.29

Werder Bremen U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 71 away

2.27

creates per match

2.21

2.36

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.27

Werder Bremen U19

2.21

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.36

Werder Bremen U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or draw

56%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or Werder Bremen U19

80%

Draw or Werder Bremen U19

64%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

20%

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

88%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

62%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

34%

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

90%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

66%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.92 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.27 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.09

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.21 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

36%

level

20%

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

44%

Werder Bremen U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

22'

38'

42'

46'

A. Soliman← M. Kolenda

60'

J. Imasuen

65'

K. Ahmad← Y. Böge

65'

B. Mashollaj← J. Imasuen

65'

L. Mina← N. Tepe

68'

L. Mina

70'

B. Trojahn← P. Behrend

70'

M. Ney← P. Bellmann

70'

S. Abbey← T. Winkelmann

76'

B. MashollajOwn goal

80'

L. Zeqiraj← L. Opitz

Hertha

Werder

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Imasuen

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Siebert

46'▲A. Soliman←▼M. Kolenda

65'▲K. Ahmad←▼Y. Böge

70'▲B. Trojahn←▼P. Behrend

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

SolimanAhmadTrojahnKarika

Manager: C. Brand

65'▲B. Mashollaj←▼J. Imasuen

65'▲L. Mina←▼N. Tepe

70'▲M. Ney←▼P. Bellmann

70'▲S. Abbey←▼T. Winkelmann

80'▲L. Zeqiraj←▼L. Opitz

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

MashollajMinaNeyAbbeyZeqirajKäuperMaiwaldt