Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1–2 Verl U19: Result & Stats

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Verl U19

H. Muqaj 66'

F. Niemetz 70'

J. Kracht 35'

5/6/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 1Kunstrasenplatz Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld KR6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U1954%

×Draw19%

Verl U1927%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19Expected goals in this matchVerl U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.73

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.49

Verl U19

1.73

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

2.27

creates per match

1.09

2.36

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.27

Verl U19

1.09

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.36

Verl U19

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Verl U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 ↓

Verl U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or draw

73%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or Verl U19

81%

Draw or Verl U19

46%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

34%

Verl U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

92%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

71%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

45%

Verl U19 1+ goals

82%

Verl U19 2+ goals

52%

Verl U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Verl U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Verl U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.27 + Verl U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.49

Verl U19 attack 1.09 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

54%

level

19%

Verl U19 scores more

27%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

J. Kracht

46'

A. Soliman← J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah

46'

F. Gerner← L. Hartmann

61'

J. Faltyn← N. Laubinger

61'

63'

66'

70'

77'

Y. Böge← A. Millgramm

77'

Paiwand Youssef← J. Kracht

86'

J. Galas← S. Kubovic

Hertha

Verl

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Siebert

46'▲A. Soliman←▼J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah

63'▲J. Hartl←▼L. Ugbogbo

77'▲Y. Böge←▼A. Millgramm

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

SolimanHartlBögeErdoganGörlitzKolendaTurunen

Manager: D. Fröhlich

46'▲F. Gerner←▼L. Hartmann

61'▲J. Faltyn←▼N. Laubinger

61'▲K. Aaron←▼A. Löwen

77'▲Paiwand Youssef←▼J. Kracht

86'▲J. Galas←▼S. Kubovic

Verl U19 substitutes

GernerFaltynAaronYoussefGalasLeonhard