Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2–2 RB Leipzig U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

RB Leipzig U19

M. Kolenda 49', 11'

D. Ihendu 89'

M. Voigt 70'

10/8/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 6Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U1933%

×Draw20%

RB Leipzig U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19Expected goals in this matchRB Leipzig U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

2.26

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.87

RB Leipzig U19

2.26

RB Leipzig U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 73 away

2.27

creates per match

2.16

2.36

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.27

RB Leipzig U19

2.16

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.36

RB Leipzig U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or draw

53%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or RB Leipzig U19

80%

Draw or RB Leipzig U19

67%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

17%

RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

85%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

56%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

29%

RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals

89%

RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals

66%

RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

41%

RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.47 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.27 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.87

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.16 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

33%

level

20%

RB Leipzig U19 scores more

47%

RB Leipzig U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Kolenda

46'

O. Köhl← O. Schmidhauser

49'

M. Kolenda

55'

K. Grabovskis← E. Lenz

55'

M. Voigt← V. Zaruba

70'

M. Voigt

71'

A. Soliman← T. Koczulap

74'

S. Schierack← A. Bayindir

78'

P. Behrend← L. Millgramm

78'

Y. Freischlad← J. Winter

81'

M. Görlitz← G. Didoss

89'

D. Ihendu

Hertha

RB

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

Manager: M. Siebert

71'▲A. Soliman←▼T. Koczulap

78'▲P. Behrend←▼L. Millgramm

81'▲M. Görlitz←▼G. Didoss

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

SolimanBehrendGörlitzErdoganNnaemeka-ChukwurahWindsorUgbogbo

Manager: D. Meyer

46'▲O. Köhl←▼O. Schmidhauser

55'▲K. Grabovskis←▼E. Lenz

55'▲M. Voigt←▼V. Zaruba

74'▲S. Schierack←▼A. Bayindir

78'▲Y. Freischlad←▼J. Winter

RB Leipzig U19 substitutes

KöhlGrabovskisVoigtSchierackFreischladPrüfrockWulf

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2–2 RB Leipzig U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 and RB Leipzig U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 8, 2022.

Goals: M. Kolenda (11', 49'), M. Voigt (70'), D. Ihendu (89').

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2–2 RB Leipzig U19