Hertha Zehlendorf U19 5–2 Hilden U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Hilden U19

P. Behrend 86'

D. Kljajić 66', 14'

A. Soliman 30'

L. Ugbogbo 27'

S. Schröder 10' (pen)

C. Kayser 8'

5/21/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 3Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U1951%

×Draw20%

Hilden U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19Expected goals in this matchHilden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.84

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.42

Hilden U19

1.84

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.27

creates per match

1.33

2.36

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.27

Hilden U19

1.33

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.36

Hilden U19

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 ↓

Hilden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or draw

70%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or Hilden U19

80%

Draw or Hilden U19

49%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

31%

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

91%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

69%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

43%

Hilden U19 1+ goals

84%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

55%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Hilden U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.27 + Hilden U19 defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.42

Hilden U19 attack 1.33 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

51%

level

20%

Hilden U19 scores more

30%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

C. Kayser

10'

S. SchröderPenalty

14'

D. Kljajić

27'

L. Ugbogbo

30'

A. Soliman

46'

D. Lewandowski← T. Mersinli

46'

M. Majetic← M. Beinhauer

46'

P. Spittmann← V. Ismailji

52'

B. Trojahn← A. Millgramm

52'

H. Muqaj← J. Hartl

52'

O. Turunen← E. Akova

60'

B. Potnar← C. Kayser

60'

T. Schwarz← B. Fazlija

63'

D. Karika← D. Erdogan

66'

D. Kljajić

86'

P. Behrend

Hertha

Hilden

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: M. Siebert

52'▲B. Trojahn←▼A. Millgramm

52'▲H. Muqaj←▼J. Hartl

52'▲O. Turunen←▼E. Akova

63'▲D. Karika←▼D. Erdogan

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

TrojahnMuqajTurunenKarika

Manager: P. Schütz

46'▲D. Lewandowski←▼T. Mersinli

46'▲M. Majetic←▼M. Beinhauer

46'▲P. Spittmann←▼V. Ismailji

60'▲B. Potnar←▼C. Kayser

60'▲T. Schwarz←▼B. Fazlija

Hilden U19 substitutes

LewandowskiMajeticSpittmannPotnarSchwarzThesis

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha Zehlendorf U19 5–2 Hilden U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 beat Hilden U19 5-2 in U19 Bundesliga on May 21, 2023.

Goals: C. Kayser (8'), S. Schröder (10' pen), D. Kljajić (14', 66'), L. Ugbogbo (27'), A. Soliman (30'), P. Behrend (86').

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 vs Hilden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha Zehlendorf U19 5–2 Hilden U19